How the Strait of Hormuz Crisis Is Hammering Diesel, Impacting Truckers, Small Businesses, and the Supply Chain

The national average price for on-highway diesel hit $5.68 per gallon today, according to trucking industry tracker CDLLife—up 90 cents in a single week and within striking distance of the all-time record $5.82 set in June 2022. In California, the pain is even sharper: $7.57 per gallon as of April 6, flirting with $7.75 earlier in the week.

For the nation’s 3.5 million truckers and the small businesses and logistics networks that depend on them, this isn’t just another price spike. It’s a full-blown energy shock with immediate cash-flow consequences.

The trigger is unmistakable: the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran that began in late February. Iranian forces responded by effectively blockading the Strait of Hormuz—the narrow chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil and significant volumes of refined products normally flow. Tanker traffic plummeted. Gulf producers shut in millions of barrels per day.

Refineries processing distillate-rich crude were attacked or idled. The result has been the largest oil supply disruption in modern history, with diesel bearing the brunt because the Middle East is a dominant supplier of both the crude grades and finished middle distillates that yield diesel and jet fuel.

Even a tentative two-week ceasefire announced this week has done little to ease pump prices in the short term. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released April 7, warns that full restoration of Hormuz flows could take months.

Diesel is forecast to peak above $5.80 per gallon in April before easing to an annual average of $4.80—still well above pre-crisis levels.

Why Diesel, Not Gasoline?

Diesel has outpaced gasoline for a simple reason: refining yields and global supply patterns. Persian Gulf crudes are “distillate-rich,” meaning they produce more diesel and heating oil than lighter gasoline fractions.

A cold U.S. winter had already drawn down distillate inventories heading into spring, leaving the market with almost no buffer when the Hormuz shock hit. The result?

Diesel prices have climbed faster and higher than gasoline, directly hammering the sectors that rely on it most: freight, agriculture, construction, and manufacturing.

The Human Cost: Truckers on the Edge

For independent owner-operators and small fleets, the math is brutal. Fuel can represent 20–40% of operating costs per mile. Spot-market rates have not kept pace with the surge, leaving many drivers to absorb the difference out of pocket.

Larry Baarts, a trucking company owner based in Minnesota, put it plainly: “Maybe the independent owner operators, because it’s their truck and they pay the bills… They might call it; they might shut it down or quit for a while if things got out of hand on pricing.”

In North Carolina, Kristen Riddle echoed the sentiment: “A lot of these companies don’t realize that what they were paying before was great, but now with these fuel prices, we have to ask them for more because we have to meet our basic needs as a family.”

Industry analysts warn that if diesel sustains levels above $6 per gallon, 6,000 to 10,000 carriers could exit the market in 2026—mostly small operators—accelerating a capacity crunch that larger fleets have so far weathered through hedging and fuel surcharges.

Greg Dubuque, general manager of Liberty Linehaul West, captured the California exceptionalism: “California sets itself apart from the rest of the country when it comes to pricing… Now it’s really out of control.”

Small Businesses and the “Tariffs 2.0” Effect

The pain doesn’t stop at the truck stop. Small businesses—retailers, contractors, florists, food trucks—are getting hit with what some are calling “fuel surcharges 2.0.” Carriers pass nearly 100% of the increase through within days, turning diesel volatility into higher shipping bills that land squarely on the smallest players.

A Richmond flower shop owner recently told reporters her delivery costs have skyrocketed, making it “more difficult for the business.” Online sellers and local manufacturers face the same squeeze from FedEx, UPS, and regional carriers. Because transportation accounts for only 3–4% of most product costs, the effect on final consumer prices may seem modest at first—but when multiplied across groceries, building materials, and consumer goods, it adds up fast.

Supply Chain Resilience—and the Risk of Consolidation

Larger logistics firms and shippers are better equipped. Fuel surcharges are standard contract language, and many have already adjusted rates. The system has proven resilient: competitive markets ensure costs move quickly from carriers to shippers rather than eroding carrier margins for long.

Yet the longer-term risk is structural. Sustained high diesel prices favor well-capitalized fleets with modern, fuel-efficient equipment and the ability to hedge. Smaller operators without those tools are most likely to park rigs or sell out. The result could be accelerated industry consolidation, tighter capacity later in 2026, and upward pressure on baseline freight rates even after crude prices moderate.

Agriculture is watching nervously as well. Planting season is underway, and diesel powers tractors, combines, and the trucks that move grain. Construction and manufacturing face similar headwinds.

What Happens Next?

The EIA’s April outlook offers cautious hope: prices should ease later in 2026 as any Hormuz reopening allows Middle Eastern producers to ramp back up. But the agency is clear—restoration will not be instantaneous. Inventories remain below five-year averages, and a risk premium lingers in futures markets.

For energy markets, the episode underscores diesel’s unique vulnerability. While crude benchmarks grab headlines, the middle distillate market often moves independently—and with greater downstream economic bite. Refiners may shift yields, but global distillate tightness (exacerbated by Europe’s post-Russia adjustments and Asian demand) limits quick fixes.

In the meantime, truckers, small-business owners, and supply-chain managers are doing what they always do: adapting. Some are optimizing routes, idling older equipment, or negotiating steeper surcharges. Others are simply waiting to see whether the ceasefire holds and tankers resume their familiar path through the Strait.